In a Rasmussin poll done in May, 49% of Americans said it was likely, or very likely Obama would be elected President. But in the latest polls, only 20% of Democrats say they will actually pull the lever for his nomination. What gives? Why can’t Obama close the deal?
Look at it across the political story elements. Obama has Passion. He is a natural politician dripping with electoral mojo. He has a good grasp of the problems the country faces (our common Antagonists) and brings fresh Awareness to solving them. His speeches are all about Transforming politics as usual. What he lacks is a clearly defined constituency – the base, or earth, a Hero needs to stand on. By trying to run as everyone’s candidate he ends up being no one’s (but everyone’s second choice). Other candidates feel safe taking shots at him because without a solid sense of the ground beneath his feet, he can’t hit back with the sort of bone crunching punch and does real damage. Their barbs are mostly cheap shots, but they come from all directions and all Obama seems able to do is roll with the punches. We want more from a President. Don’t get me wrong. I think someday Obama will be President of the United States for the same reason Willie Mays played center field – because that was what he was born to do. But this election cycle it is Edward’s story that is most likely to throw old pro Hillary off her game.